Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.4 – 222.85

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.8 ±13.5

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 101.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 24.51Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 7.07Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.3 ±9.9

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 135.08Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 52.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 35.61Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 6808, 11225

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 6808, 11225

Auto

31.3 23%

Teleop

74.0 55%

Endgame

28.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 433, 102

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2607, 433, 102

Auto

38.0 17%

Teleop

135.1 61%

Endgame

49.6 22%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.4pts

Blue projected score222.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.4
Score range: 111–245
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.8Season APEX358.3

31.3Auto38

74Teleop135.1

28.2Endgame49.6

25Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	23
teleop	22	98
endgame	14	15
foul	5	5
total	74	141

Result

Final score

74 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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