Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.34 – 97.64

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.7 ±11.2

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -4.3Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 207.43Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX -6.79Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.8 ±10.4

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 10.99Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 40.58Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 46.07Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 341, 10997

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9416, 341, 10997

Auto

50.4 27%

Teleop

105.9 56%

Endgame

33.4 18%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9014, 10070, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 10070, 10993

Auto

23.2 25%

Teleop

31.1 33%

Endgame

39.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score97.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.7
Score range: 76–218
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.7Season APEX262.8

50.4Auto23.2

105.9Teleop31.1

33.4Endgame39.6

104Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	12
teleop	159	6
endgame	63	60
foul	0	0
total	276	78

Result

Final score

276 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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