Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.46 – 48.24

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±11

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 26.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 34.42Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -0.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.6 ±12.7

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 13.98Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 39.55Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -5.29Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1168, 102, 10949

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1168, 102, 10949

Auto

16.1 26%

Teleop

26.4 43%

Endgame

19.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10600, 5407, 5490

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 5407, 5490

Auto

11.7 28%

Teleop

24.7 59%

Endgame

5.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.5pts

Blue projected score48.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 25–83
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 126.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.2Season APEX136.6

16.1Auto11.7

26.4Teleop24.7

19.2Endgame5.4

24Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	31	21
endgame	15	3
foul	0	0
total	60	39

Result

Final score

60 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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