Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.92 – 128.99

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.8 ±9.3

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 89.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 20Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 48.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±11.2

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 5.62Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 31.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 91.38Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 10918, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 10918, 3314

Auto

16.8 11%

Teleop

78.5 53%

Endgame

53.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 203, 10157, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 203, 10157, 5181

Auto

22.1 17%

Teleop

84.6 66%

Endgame

22.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.9pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.9
Score range: 107–180
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.8Season APEX323.3

16.8Auto22.1

78.5Teleop84.6

53.5Endgame22.4

47Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	16
teleop	88	121
endgame	21	72
foul	0	0
total	152	209

Result

Final score

152 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 43 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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