Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.8 – 138.82

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.2 ±11.6

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 41.56Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 20.61Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 33.63Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±11.2

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 140.58Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -4.18Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 2.42Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 9014, 102

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 9014, 102

Auto

13.1 14%

Teleop

49.0 52%

Endgame

31.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 9416, 11366

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2607, 9416, 11366

Auto

26.9 19%

Teleop

80.8 58%

Endgame

32.3 23%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.8pts

Blue projected score138.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43
Score range: 74–161
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.2Season APEX299.5

13.1Auto26.9

49Teleop80.8

31.6Endgame32.3

19Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	46	62
endgame	20	37
foul	0	0
total	85	138

Result

Final score

85 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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