Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.15 – 118.11

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±11.2

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 42.82Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -9.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 94.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±10.5

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 19.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 42.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 56.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 423, 10170, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 10170, 5181

Auto

24.7 19%

Teleop

72.6 57%

Endgame

30.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 428, 3314, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 428, 3314, 10993

Auto

15.9 14%

Teleop

47.2 40%

Endgame

53.8 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score118.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9
Score range: 95–150
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.8Season APEX389

24.7Auto15.9

72.6Teleop47.2

30.2Endgame53.8

21Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	28
teleop	51	42
endgame	25	26
foul	0	30
total	101	126

Result

Final score

101 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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