Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.31 – 94.53

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.6 ±12.2

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 34.34Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX -13.97Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 11.94Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.9 ±11.2

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 56.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 5.54Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 32.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2559, 10997, 75

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2559, 10997, 75

Auto

22.8 76%

Teleop

-5.4 0%

Endgame

12.7 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 433, 203, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 433, 203, 1168

Auto

21.7 24%

Teleop

61.2 68%

Endgame

6.5 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.3pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.2
Score range: 9–118
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.6Season APEX207.9

22.8Auto21.7

-5.4Teleop61.2

12.7Endgame6.5

110Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	19
teleop	30	55
endgame	11	5
foul	0	0
total	47	79

Result

Final score

47 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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