Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
150.09 – 128.44
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
99 – 132
Prediction missed · off by 27.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 32Event APEX 38.63Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 107.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 3.95Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 92.18Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 28.75Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 7.51Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2559, 484, 5490
65
/ 100 compatProjected
150.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2559, 484, 5490
Auto
28.0 19%
Teleop
85.4 58%
Endgame
34.0 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5181, 102, 11366
63
/ 100 compatProjected
128.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5181, 102, 11366
Auto
27.9 22%
Teleop
69.8 54%
Endgame
30.6 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.4
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score150.1pts
Blue projected score128.4pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 21.7
- Score range
- 103–175
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
373.2Season APEX292.8
28Auto27.9
85.4Teleop69.8
34Endgame30.6
44Consistency65
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 24 |
| teleop | 53 | 75 |
| endgame | 14 | 33 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 99 | 132 |
Result
Final score
99 – 132
Prediction missed · off by 27.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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