Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.7 – 227.98

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 81.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.1 ±10.4

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 45.55Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 14.07Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 34.08Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±9.3

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 180.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -20.47Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 68.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 423, 75, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 75, 10157

Auto

21.4 25%

Teleop

55.7 65%

Endgame

8.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 10949, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 341, 10949, 5181

Auto

52.0 23%

Teleop

118.1 53%

Endgame

52.2 23%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.7pts

Blue projected score228pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.3
Score range: 72–250
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.1Season APEX534.9

21.4Auto52

55.7Teleop118.1

8.4Endgame52.2

11Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	74
teleop	32	247
endgame	41	60
foul	0	5
total	89	386

Result

Final score

89 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 81.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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