Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.28 – 124.41

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.7 ±11.7

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 58.96Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 18.85Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -22.53Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±10.5

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 44.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 35.36Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 44.23Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10993, 10918, 10170

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 10918, 10170

Auto

14.4 24%

Teleop

-5.4 0%

Endgame

50.6 85%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 102, 10070

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 102, 10070

Auto

29.3 23%

Teleop

36.5 29%

Endgame

60.3 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.3pts

Blue projected score124.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.1
Score range: 33–146
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.7Season APEX413.9

14.4Auto29.3

-5.4Teleop36.5

50.6Endgame60.3

29Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	34	85
endgame	32	27
foul	0	0
total	79	141

Result

Final score

79 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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