Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.34 – 73.53

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±11.2

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 22.32Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 57.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 0.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.9 ±12.2

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 17.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 23.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 32.97Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9014, 433, 11366

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 433, 11366

Auto

17.1 23%

Teleop

44.4 60%

Endgame

12.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6921, 428, 10989

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6921, 428, 10989

Auto

14.2 18%

Teleop

52.0 67%

Endgame

11.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score73.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.8
Score range: 51–103
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.8Season APEX216.9

17.1Auto14.2

44.4Teleop52

12Endgame11

52Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	72	35
endgame	15	23
foul	0	0
total	105	71

Result

Final score

105 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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