Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.33 – 3.21

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.8 ±11.6

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 8.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 32.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 36.56Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169 ±14.9

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -5.5Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -5.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 14.58Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10600, 1168, 2559

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 1168, 2559

Auto

30.7 43%

Teleop

34.8 48%

Endgame

6.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 203, 9416, 11225

/ 100 compat

Projected

3.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 203, 9416, 11225

Auto

-9.8 0%

Teleop

-6.9 0%

Endgame

18.1 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.3pts

Blue projected score3.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.1
Score range: -18–98
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.8Season APEX169

30.7Auto-9.8

34.8Teleop-6.9

6.5Endgame18.1

27Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	11
teleop	57	14
endgame	39	1
foul	0	0
total	125	26

Result

Final score

125 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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