Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.65 – 32.72

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±10.5

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 36.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 89.13Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 64.02Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.6 ±10.4

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -27.78Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 37.74Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 22.76Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 428, 708, 10070

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 428, 708, 10070

Auto

61.0 33%

Teleop

81.2 44%

Endgame

43.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10949, 9014, 6921

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10949, 9014, 6921

Auto

-7.4 0%

Teleop

25.9 85%

Endgame

11.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.6pts

Blue projected score32.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.9
Score range: 11–212
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280Season APEX241.6

61Auto-7.4

81.2Teleop25.9

43.3Endgame11.8

15Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	3
teleop	84	9
endgame	26	12
foul	0	0
total	150	24

Result

Final score

150 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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