Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.4 – 158.12

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.7 ±15.3

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 42.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX -5.38Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 10.58Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.1 ±12.4

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 23.13Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 50.74Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 84.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 10997, 11225

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 10997, 11225

Auto

1.1 2%

Teleop

12.0 25%

Endgame

35.1 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5490, 10989, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 10989, 5181

Auto

28.8 18%

Teleop

91.7 57%

Endgame

39.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.4pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.7
Score range: 26–179
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.7Season APEX295.1

1.1Auto28.8

12Teleop91.7

35.1Endgame39.2

68Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	17
teleop	20	69
endgame	0	24
foul	5	0
total	34	110

Result

Final score

34 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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