Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.22 – 112.22

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.2 ±11.7

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -16.45Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 55.02Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 27.65Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±11.2

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 8.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 16.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 87.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10170, 3314, 10600

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 3314, 10600

Auto

11.4 17%

Teleop

31.0 46%

Endgame

24.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11366, 6808, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11366, 6808, 272

Auto

29.5 28%

Teleop

44.1 42%

Endgame

30.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.2pts

Blue projected score112.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 45–133
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.2Season APEX316.9

11.4Auto29.5

31Teleop44.1

24.5Endgame30.9

69Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	48
teleop	2	60
endgame	38	48
foul	0	0
total	56	156

Result

Final score

56 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 27 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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