Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.09 – 160.26

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151 ±11.6

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 27.84Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 32.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -19.59Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.8 ±11.2

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 25.71Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 112.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 22.36Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2559, 428, 10949

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2559, 428, 10949

Auto

21.7 65%

Teleop

-3.8 0%

Endgame

15.5 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10989, 341, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10989, 341, 10918

Auto

55.4 36%

Teleop

74.5 49%

Endgame

23.5 15%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.2
Score range: 21–180
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151Season APEX416.8

21.7Auto55.4

-3.8Teleop74.5

15.5Endgame23.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	53
teleop	37	135
endgame	19	73
foul	0	0
total	71	261

Result

Final score

71 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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