Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.43 – 46.71

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.5 ±11.2

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 25.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 80.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 6.76Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.2 ±12.4

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 0.62Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 84.66Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -38.57Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9014, 272, 203

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 272, 203

Auto

20.6 19%

Teleop

54.6 50%

Endgame

34.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5490, 2607, 10170

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 2607, 10170

Auto

6.7 15%

Teleop

28.3 64%

Endgame

9.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.4pts

Blue projected score46.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.7
Score range: 26–134
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.5Season APEX292.2

20.6Auto6.7

54.6Teleop28.3

34.9Endgame9.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	38
teleop	69	82
endgame	43	25
foul	5	0
total	133	145

Result

Final score

133 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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