Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.78 – 126.88

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±13.5

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 62.52Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 20Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 27.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.3 ±9.8

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 25.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 108.5Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -6.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10157, 11225, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 11225, 433

Auto

27.4 28%

Teleop

57.6 59%

Endgame

13.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1168, 708, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1168, 708, 9416

Auto

40.6 35%

Teleop

68.1 58%

Endgame

7.9 7%

Strengths

· 708 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.8pts

Blue projected score126.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.1
Score range: 90–147
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.5Season APEX265.3

27.4Auto40.6

57.6Teleop68.1

13.2Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	83	64
endgame	23	42
foul	0	0
total	122	121

Result

Final score

122 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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