Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.52 – 133.21

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±11.7

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 4.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 52.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 33.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±9.8

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 10.62Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 70.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 51.85Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11366, 484, 10600

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11366, 484, 10600

Auto

26.1 29%

Teleop

46.1 52%

Endgame

16.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 75, 5181, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 5181, 10993

Auto

16.5 12%

Teleop

76.8 58%

Endgame

39.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.7
Score range: 70–153
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.7Season APEX413.6

26.1Auto16.5

46.1Teleop76.8

16.3Endgame39.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	36
teleop	33	75
endgame	14	50
foul	5	0
total	68	161

Result

Final score

68 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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