Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.54 – 169.53

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 7

Prediction missed · off by 100 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.4 ±9.8

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 20.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 91.22Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 54.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.3 ±12.2

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 70.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 7.75Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 91.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1168, 341, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1168, 341, 10157

Auto

30.7 18%

Teleop

92.9 56%

Endgame

42.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6921, 10170, 5407

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6921, 10170, 5407

Auto

37.1 22%

Teleop

94.2 56%

Endgame

38.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.5pts

Blue projected score169.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 146–191
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.4Season APEX204.3

30.7Auto37.1

92.9Teleop94.2

42.4Endgame38.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	2
teleop	108	5
endgame	4	0
foul	20	0
total	204	7

Result

Final score

204 – 7

Prediction missed · off by 100 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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