Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

39.41 – 32.51

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±12.8

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 23.82Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 13.8Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 1.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.8 ±11

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 12.31Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 10.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 9.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 75, 10989, 10170

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 10989, 10170

Auto

10.3 28%

Teleop

19.9 53%

Endgame

7.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9416, 10600, 6808

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9416, 10600, 6808

Auto

13.2 42%

Teleop

4.3 14%

Endgame

13.6 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.4pts

Blue projected score32.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 8–64
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 42 vs event baseline 138.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.6Season APEX132.8

10.3Auto13.2

19.9Teleop4.3

7Endgame13.6

12Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	12
teleop	2	5
endgame	1	8
foul	0	0
total	17	25

Result

Final score

17 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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