Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.09 – 91.68

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±10.4

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 48.29Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 20.38Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 37.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±9.8

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 36.6Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 22.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 32.73Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 1811, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 1811, 423

Auto

17.9 17%

Teleop

60.5 57%

Endgame

28.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 501, 1279, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 1279, 321

Auto

27.4 31%

Teleop

40.3 45%

Endgame

22.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.1pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 69–129
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.4Season APEX249.7

17.9Auto27.4

60.5Teleop40.3

28.3Endgame22.1

102Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	17
teleop	36	24
endgame	25	23
foul	5	0
total	84	64

Result

Final score

84 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Match videos

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