Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.76 – 127.32

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.3 ±10.5

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 36.68Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 31.82Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 25.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±11.1

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 58.58Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 43.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 24.92Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10918, 2720, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10918, 2720, 4575

Auto

38.5 42%

Teleop

30.6 34%

Endgame

21.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 10143, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 10143, 8630

Auto

23.8 20%

Teleop

56.2 47%

Endgame

40.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.8pts

Blue projected score127.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.6
Score range: 71–150
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.3Season APEX226.4

38.5Auto23.8

30.6Teleop56.2

21.9Endgame40.5

7Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	37
teleop	66	92
endgame	41	43
foul	0	15
total	141	187

Result

Final score

141 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Match videos

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