Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.14 – 129.91

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±10.4

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 42.94Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 15.52Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 31.68Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±11.1

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 59.25Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 44.9Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 25.76Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 1811, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 1811, 423

Auto

12.4 14%

Teleop

52.6 57%

Endgame

26.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 10143, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 10143, 8630

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

66.4 55%

Endgame

30.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.1pts

Blue projected score129.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.8
Score range: 67–153
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.4Season APEX226.4

12.4Auto23.6

52.6Teleop66.4

26.6Endgame30.9

91Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	25
teleop	69	13
endgame	33	76
foul	5	0
total	137	114

Result

Final score

137 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 pts

Match videos

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