Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.17 – 104.49

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±11.1

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 60.04Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 47.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 26.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±10.4

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 47.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 19.62Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 37.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 10143, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 10143, 8630

Auto

27.3 22%

Teleop

60.8 48%

Endgame

38.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2016, 1811, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 1811, 423

Auto

18.1 17%

Teleop

57.7 55%

Endgame

28.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score104.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.7
Score range: 81–157
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.4Season APEX217.4

27.3Auto18.1

60.8Teleop57.7

38.4Endgame28.4

13Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	20
teleop	70	54
endgame	9	40
foul	10	0
total	121	114

Result

Final score

121 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Match videos

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