Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.87 – 226.65

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.7 ±9.3

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 26.83Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 172.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 126.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.9 ±9.8

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 35.92Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 62.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 128.31Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 1391, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 1391, 9094

Auto

74.2 23%

Teleop

190.6 59%

Endgame

60.3 19%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6808, 6921, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6808, 6921, 1218

Auto

46.7 21%

Teleop

118.1 53%

Endgame

56.6 26%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325.9pts

Blue projected score226.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.2
Score range: 204–349
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.7Season APEX387.9

74.2Auto46.7

190.6Teleop118.1

60.3Endgame56.6

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	22
teleop	240	28
endgame	40	27
foul	0	5
total	356	82

Result

Final score

356 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 pts

Match videos

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