Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.84 – 137.25

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

108 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±10.4

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 18.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 57.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 42.41Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±11.1

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 61.91Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 47.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 28.12Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10949, 9014, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10949, 9014, 365

Auto

16.0 14%

Teleop

59.7 52%

Endgame

40.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 10143, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 10143, 8630

Auto

25.9 20%

Teleop

62.5 48%

Endgame

40.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score137.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.4
Score range: 95–160
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 128.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.1Season APEX226.4

16Auto25.9

59.7Teleop62.5

40.2Endgame40.8

107Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	56	47
endgame	31	21
foul	0	5
total	108	108

Result

Final score

108 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 pts

Match videos

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