Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.23 – 94.82

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.1 ±10.5

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 10.85Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 19.59Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 23.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±10.4

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 51.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 19.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 23.79Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 365, 10143

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 365, 10143

Auto

11.9 24%

Teleop

26.9 55%

Endgame

9.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10918, 4638, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10918, 4638, 1811

Auto

15.3 17%

Teleop

50.4 57%

Endgame

23.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.2pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.6
Score range: 32–117
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.1Season APEX178.1

11.9Auto15.3

26.9Teleop50.4

9.8Endgame23.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	25
teleop	67	26
endgame	56	19
foul	0	0
total	142	70

Result

Final score

142 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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