Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.38 – 90.29

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 555.9 ±9.3

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 66.35Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 60.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 31.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±12.2

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 16.57Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 60.29Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 13.43Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5789, 9094, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5789, 9094, 1218

Auto

24.1 16%

Teleop

94.2 61%

Endgame

36.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10600, 423, 10989

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 423, 10989

Auto

13.4 15%

Teleop

56.3 62%

Endgame

20.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.1
Score range: 69–179
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

555.9Season APEX173.1

24.1Auto13.4

94.2Teleop56.3

36.4Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	2
teleop	180	5
endgame	29	17
foul	0	0
total	283	24

Result

Final score

283 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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