Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.88 – 225.51

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±11.7

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 39Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 13.23Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 29.65Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403 ±9.9

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 1.7Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 179.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 44.38Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 501, 816, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 816, 423

Auto

14.2 18%

Teleop

47.1 60%

Endgame

17.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10600, 1391, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 1391, 321

Auto

48.4 22%

Teleop

130.9 59%

Endgame

44.3 20%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.9pts

Blue projected score225.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: 59–249
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.9Season APEX403

14.2Auto48.4

47.1Teleop130.9

17.1Endgame44.3

4Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	18	82
endgame	57	11
foul	0	0
total	92	130

Result

Final score

92 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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