Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.4 – 43.59

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 90 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.7 ±9.8

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 18.04Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 120.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 36.85Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.5 ±11

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 9.78Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 15.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 18.43Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 9094, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 9094, 2016

Auto

43.7 25%

Teleop

103.4 59%

Endgame

29.2 17%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 10949, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 10949, 8630

Auto

12.5 33%

Teleop

16.8 44%

Endgame

8.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.4pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.8
Score range: 22–197
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.7Season APEX150.5

43.7Auto12.5

103.4Teleop16.8

29.2Endgame8.8

52Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	20
teleop	124	59
endgame	77	46
foul	10	0
total	274	125

Result

Final score

274 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 90 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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