Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.94 – 83.14

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±10.4

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 49.65Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 46.27Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 24.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.8

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 38.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 19.02Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 25.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5789, 365, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5789, 365, 1279

Auto

32.3 26%

Teleop

53.0 43%

Endgame

38.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10918, 2180, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10918, 2180, 714

Auto

22.3 29%

Teleop

15.0 19%

Endgame

40.4 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.9pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.8
Score range: 60–143
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.6Season APEX165.8

32.3Auto22.3

53Teleop15

38Endgame40.4

34Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	28
teleop	67	17
endgame	52	30
foul	0	0
total	135	75

Result

Final score

135 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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