Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.09 – 188.71

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.9 ±12.7

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 3.61Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 32.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 44.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.6 ±11.2

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 125.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 2.42Rank 31Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 60.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10170, 2720, 10143

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 2720, 10143

Auto

18.8 25%

Teleop

36.7 49%

Endgame

19.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1218, 203, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1218, 203, 9014

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

108.5 57%

Endgame

49.9 26%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.1pts

Blue projected score188.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.6
Score range: 59–211
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.9Season APEX348.6

18.8Auto31.7

36.7Teleop108.5

19Endgame49.9

21Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	56
teleop	48	128
endgame	19	29
foul	10	0
total	99	213

Result

Final score

99 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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