Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.87 – 315.42

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±11.2

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 10.96Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 26.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 46.17Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.2 ±8.7

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 116.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 176.47Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 22.66Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1811, 714, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 714, 321

Auto

21.4 27%

Teleop

30.1 38%

Endgame

27.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9094, 1391, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9094, 1391, 4575

Auto

72.2 23%

Teleop

182.5 58%

Endgame

58.0 19%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.9pts

Blue projected score315.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -231.5
Score range: 62–337
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222Season APEX585.2

21.4Auto72.2

30.1Teleop182.5

27.3Endgame58

121Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	75
teleop	35	243
endgame	17	47
foul	0	0
total	73	365

Result

Final score

73 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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