Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.09 – 121.47

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.9 ±11

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 49.22Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 44.07Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 35.8Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±11

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 15.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 45.19Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 60.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 365, 501, 2720

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 365, 501, 2720

Auto

28.5 22%

Teleop

56.4 44%

Endgame

42.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10949, 10143, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10949, 10143, 9014

Auto

14.2 13%

Teleop

73.7 66%

Endgame

24.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.1pts

Blue projected score121.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.6
Score range: 99–151
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.9Season APEX187.4

28.5Auto14.2

56.4Teleop73.7

42.8Endgame24.2

32Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	58	67
endgame	20	37
foul	0	0
total	100	122

Result

Final score

100 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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