Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.4 – 133.37

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±10.5

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 20.85Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 51.94Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 62.61Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±10.4

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 39.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 63.07Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 30.84Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8630, 5789, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 5789, 708

Auto

27.4 21%

Teleop

64.6 50%

Endgame

37.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10918, 6921, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10918, 6921, 423

Auto

21.9 17%

Teleop

54.5 42%

Endgame

54.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.4pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2
Score range: 111–157
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.9Season APEX291.9

27.4Auto21.9

64.6Teleop54.5

37.7Endgame54.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	41
teleop	50	37
endgame	17	51
foul	0	0
total	116	129

Result

Final score

116 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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