Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.55 – 29.28

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±9.3

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 24.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 20.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 124.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±11.7

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 1.44Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 12.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 15.49Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 4575, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 4575, 1218

Auto

44.3 26%

Teleop

93.4 55%

Endgame

33.2 19%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10170, 10979, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 10979, 4638

Auto

16.6 57%

Teleop

6.2 21%

Endgame

6.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.6pts

Blue projected score29.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.3
Score range: 7–193
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369Season APEX268.7

44.3Auto16.6

93.4Teleop6.2

33.2Endgame6.1

43Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	26
teleop	101	21
endgame	39	12
foul	0	0
total	186	59

Result

Final score

186 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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