Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.5 – 94.57

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.1 ±12.8

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 39.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 4.13Rank 31Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 17.94Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.4 ±12.8

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 36.8Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 30.53Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 27.24Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6808, 203, 816

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6808, 203, 816

Auto

24.5 39%

Teleop

22.7 36%

Endgame

15.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2016, 10989, 204

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 10989, 204

Auto

21.5 22%

Teleop

54.6 57%

Endgame

20.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.5pts

Blue projected score94.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.1
Score range: 40–117
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.1Season APEX166.4

24.5Auto21.5

22.7Teleop54.6

15.4Endgame20.3

57Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	26
teleop	10	48
endgame	11	17
foul	0	5
total	38	96

Result

Final score

38 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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