Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.83 – 95.17

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.4 ±11.7

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 60.13Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 58.09Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 15.61Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±11.1

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 32.8Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 1.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 60.44Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6921, 9014, 2180

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6921, 9014, 2180

Auto

19.4 15%

Teleop

55.4 43%

Endgame

55.5 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2720, 10600, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 10600, 708

Auto

15.1 17%

Teleop

53.4 58%

Endgame

22.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score95.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.7
Score range: 73–156
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.4Season APEX189.1

19.4Auto15.1

55.4Teleop53.4

55.5Endgame22.9

76Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	47
teleop	106	58
endgame	46	21
foul	0	0
total	166	126

Result

Final score

166 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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