Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.34 – 232.71

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±11.7

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 38Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 29.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 19.18Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.6 ±9.8

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 37.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 56.5Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 138.35Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 10989, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 10989, 1279

Auto

28.3 32%

Teleop

41.7 48%

Endgame

17.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 423, 9014, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 9014, 9094

Auto

39.1 17%

Teleop

138.8 60%

Endgame

53.5 23%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.3pts

Blue projected score232.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.4
Score range: 62–257
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.6Season APEX418.6

28.3Auto39.1

41.7Teleop138.8

17.4Endgame53.5

13Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	31
teleop	33	139
endgame	3	41
foul	0	0
total	47	211

Result

Final score

47 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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