Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.3 – 227.6

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.3 ±11.2

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 22.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 118.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 11.87Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394 ±11.2

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 169.16Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 4.61Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 53.83Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10989, 1218, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10989, 1218, 1811

Auto

30.5 20%

Teleop

92.2 61%

Endgame

27.9 19%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 10170, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1391, 10170, 365

Auto

39.3 17%

Teleop

125.8 54%

Endgame

65.8 28%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.3pts

Blue projected score227.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.3
Score range: 130–250
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.3Season APEX394

30.5Auto39.3

92.2Teleop125.8

27.9Endgame65.8

86Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	58
teleop	87	85
endgame	46	60
foul	0	0
total	154	203

Result

Final score

154 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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