Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.36 – 196.01

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±11.7

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 64.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 15.09Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 24.67Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.4 ±10.5

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 43.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 42.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 109.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6921, 816, 10949

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6921, 816, 10949

Auto

22.5 24%

Teleop

43.2 46%

Endgame

28.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10143, 6808, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 6808, 9094

Auto

47.5 25%

Teleop

104.3 55%

Endgame

39.0 20%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.4pts

Blue projected score196pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.6
Score range: 82–218
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX354.4

22.5Auto47.5

43.2Teleop104.3

28.6Endgame39

68Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	53
teleop	36	146
endgame	37	51
foul	0	0
total	87	250

Result

Final score

87 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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