Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.88 – 100.43

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.1 ±12.2

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 38.29Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 22.29Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 34.3Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±10.4

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 14.14Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 53.98Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 32.31Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 423, 714, 2720

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 714, 2720

Auto

17.6 20%

Teleop

49.3 56%

Endgame

21.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 365, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 365, 2016

Auto

13.0 12%

Teleop

52.5 49%

Endgame

41.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score100.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.6
Score range: 73–122
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.1Season APEX236.1

17.6Auto13

49.3Teleop52.5

21.8Endgame41.4

37Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	64	59
endgame	36	18
foul	0	0
total	114	99

Result

Final score

114 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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