Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.02 – 66.47

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244 ±9.8

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 58.35Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 9.19Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 44.48Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±11.7

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 28.2Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 10.74Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 27.53Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 4638, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 4638, 501

Auto

26.5 25%

Teleop

49.2 46%

Endgame

30.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8630, 10170, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 10170, 4575

Auto

16.5 26%

Teleop

19.7 31%

Endgame

27.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score66.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.6
Score range: 44–134
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244Season APEX168.1

26.5Auto16.5

49.2Teleop19.7

30.4Endgame27

2Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	19
teleop	77	1
endgame	31	0
foul	0	0
total	136	20

Result

Final score

136 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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