Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.76 – 96.2

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.1 ±12.2

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 40.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 61.92Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 18.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±10.4

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 35.75Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 6.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 54.06Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10143, 6921, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 6921, 714

Auto

22.1 19%

Teleop

54.5 46%

Endgame

41.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 423, 10979, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 10979, 365

Auto

8.9 9%

Teleop

55.3 56%

Endgame

34.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score96.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.6
Score range: 74–143
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.1Season APEX389.1

22.1Auto8.9

54.5Teleop55.3

41.6Endgame34.7

38Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	64	59
endgame	34	26
foul	30	0
total	146	104

Result

Final score

146 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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