Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.21 – 32.27

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.8 ±11.2

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 15.42Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 59.26Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 16.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±11.7

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -1.76Rank 31Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 9.3Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 24.73Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 816, 708, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 816, 708, 1811

Auto

19.7 23%

Teleop

43.2 51%

Endgame

21.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 203, 4638, 10949

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 203, 4638, 10949

Auto

27.7 100%

Teleop

1.3 5%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 10–113
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.8Season APEX162.6

19.7Auto27.7

43.2Teleop1.3

21.5Endgame-1.7

119Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	55	1
endgame	10	4
foul	0	0
total	81	29

Result

Final score

81 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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