Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.01 – 56.3

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.5 ±11.7

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 98.9Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 15.55Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 11.56Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.4 ±11.7

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 4.68Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 31.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 19.99Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9094, 8630, 10989

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9094, 8630, 10989

Auto

33.6 27%

Teleop

69.7 56%

Endgame

20.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2180, 2720, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2180, 2720, 4575

Auto

23.2 42%

Teleop

17.0 31%

Endgame

15.2 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126pts

Blue projected score56.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.7
Score range: 34–148
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.5Season APEX152.4

33.6Auto23.2

69.7Teleop17

20.3Endgame15.2

45Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	38
teleop	116	35
endgame	45	24
foul	15	0
total	227	97

Result

Final score

227 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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