Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.97 – 100.76

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116 ±12.8

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 29.63Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 37.28Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 10.06Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.1 ±10.4

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 33.99Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 20.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 45.92Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 204, 1279, 10170

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 204, 1279, 10170

Auto

22.3 29%

Teleop

29.4 39%

Endgame

24.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2016, 10949, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 10949, 5789

Auto

22.2 23%

Teleop

63.6 67%

Endgame

8.8 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score100.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.8
Score range: 55–123
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116Season APEX212.1

22.3Auto22.2

29.4Teleop63.6

24.3Endgame8.8

48Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	46
teleop	24	52
endgame	9	17
foul	0	0
total	52	115

Result

Final score

52 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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