Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.33 – 106.83

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 7.49Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 171.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 58.74Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±12.8

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 24.92Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 60.6Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 21.31Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 1391, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 1391, 9014

Auto

41.4 17%

Teleop

130.8 55%

Endgame

65.5 28%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 714, 365, 816

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 714, 365, 816

Auto

18.2 17%

Teleop

50.8 48%

Endgame

36.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.3pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.5
Score range: 85–259
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.2Season APEX198.5

41.4Auto18.2

130.8Teleop50.8

65.5Endgame36.3

112Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	16
teleop	131	14
endgame	44	38
foul	0	0
total	224	68

Result

Final score

224 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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