Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.46 – 42.97

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.9 ±11.6

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 5.88Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 26.1Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 31.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.8 ±12.4

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 41.66Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -2.53Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 3.84Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8630, 2016, 10143

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 2016, 10143

Auto

5.8 10%

Teleop

24.2 43%

Endgame

26.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 321, 2180, 10170

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 321, 2180, 10170

Auto

12.1 30%

Teleop

-3.4 0%

Endgame

32.1 79%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.5pts

Blue projected score43pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 22–84
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.9Season APEX194.8

5.8Auto12.1

24.2Teleop-3.4

26.4Endgame32.1

38Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	107	29
endgame	17	42
foul	0	0
total	145	89

Result

Final score

145 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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